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If it’s anything like mine, which has soared into the hundreds of dollars a month, you’ll understand why last week the Justice Department filed suit to block ’s takeover of T-Mobile.

The antitrust laws are intended to protect consumers, like wireless customers, by promoting competition. You could be forgiven for forgetting there are antitrust laws, given how feeble enforcement efforts have been over the last decade. Even Adam Smith railed against the pernicious effects of monopolies, but in recent years free market fervor and the writings of influential academics like Robert Bork have led many to wonder if the antitrust laws were just a quaint relic of a bygone era.

That, or something like it, may have been the thinking of the lawyers for AT&T who negotiated the terms of the T-Mobile deal.

It’s hard to blame them: of the five major telecom mergers in the last decade, not one was challenged on antitrust grounds. AT&T agreed to give T-Mobile a huge breakup fee of $3 billion in cash plus wireless spectrum and a roaming agreement valued at another $3 billion should the deal fall through on antitrust or other grounds.

Such confidence on AT&T’s part seems inexplicable otherwise. For if ever there was a merger likely to be blocked on antitrust grounds, this is it.

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“It’s only a slight overstatement to say that if they weren’t going to block this one, the Justice Department might as well just throw the antitrust guidelines out the window,” said Herbert Hovenkamp, professor of law at the University of Iowa, who is considered by many to be the dean of American antitrust law. “This merger clearly seems to violate them.”

The antitrust division has long published explicit guidelines that tell companies which mergers it is likely to block as anticompetitive.

The analysis begins with a mathematical formula for calculating the deal’s effect on competition. It’s called the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, or HHI, a phrase you may want to drop at your next dinner party if you want to bring conversation to a halt.

Although the formula looks slightly complicated, it’s derived from the common-sense principle that the more competitors in a market, the lower the prices and the greater the innovation. In short, more competitors means more competition, which benefits consumers.

The Justice Department has officially used HHI since 1982, and the guidelines were revised by the Obama administration in 2010. Mr. Hovenkamp notes that despite tougher antitrust rhetoric from President Obama, the revision actually made it easier for proposed mergers to pass muster. Without getting too deeply into the math, industries can be scored on a scale up to 10,000, with 10,000 being a perfect monopoly. During the Bush administration, an HHI score of 1,800 or higher was deemed a concentrated industry, and a merger that increased the score by more than 100 points in such an industry was presumed to raise anticompetitive concerns. The new guidelines raised those numbers to 2,500 and 200.

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“It was becoming legendary that the Bush administration wasn’t enforcing the old guidelines,” Mr. Hovenkamp said. “What good is a guideline that doesn’t provide any guidance? The Obama administration conceded that perhaps the old guidelines were too strict. So it made it easier, but at the same time said, ‘We’re going to enforce this.’ ”

How does the proposed AT&T and T-Mobile merger fare under the revised guidelines? Let’s go to Exhibit B of the government’s complaint, in which the Justice Department does the math. AT&T has argued strenuously that the case should be considered market-by-market, and not for the nation as a whole, where there are only four national wireless providers. So let’s look at some local markets.

In New York, the combination of AT&T and T-Mobile would command 43.7 percent of the market, resulting in an HHI of 3,335, an increase of 951; in Chicago, it’s 48.1 percent of the market and an HHI of 3,189, and increase of 1,114; and in Seattle, it’s 53.2 percent, with an HHI of 4,044 and an increase of 1,366. These numbers are not even close to the guidelines — they’re off the charts.

In 96 of the top 100 markets, the HHI is over 2,500, meaning the market would be highly concentrated. In all the top 40 markets, the increase exceeds the guideline limit of 200.

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The New Lawyer James And Field Pdf Merge

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The New Lawyer James And Field Pdf Merger

Despite AT&T’s preference for local market analysis, it’s clear that the wireless carriers also compete in a nationwide market, especially for corporate customers. For wireless carriers in the United States as a whole, the HHI is 3,100 and the increase would be just under 700.

Wayne Watts, AT&T’s general counsel, said the company was “surprised and disappointed” by the government’s decision to file suit to block the merger. But how could anyone at AT&T truly be surprised? “These numbers substantially exceed the thresholds at which mergers are presumed to be likely to enhance market power,” the government said.

AT&T may have focused instead on a Government Accountability Office study, which concluded that an index of wireless costs to consumers dropped 50 percent from 1999 to 2009, even though there were five major telecom mergers that resulted in more concentration. But the historical record didn’t sway the department’s antitrust lawyers. Not all concentrated industries reduce competition or hurt consumers, and the HHI is “just the beginning of our analysis,” a lawyer at the Justice Department said this week. Among the questions the government explored: Could other competitors easily enter the market and replace T-Mobile? Could higher concentration lead to efficiencies and lower prices that would most likely be passed on to consumers?

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The answer in each case was “no,” the Justice Department concluded. AT&T, naturally, disagrees.

AT&T has argued that acquiring T-Mobile’s spectrum would enable it to upgrade its network and improve its notoriously spotty service in markets like Manhattan. The Justice Department concedes that spectrum is scarce and that AT&T needs more to compete at the high end with Verizon, the largest provider by market share. But Justice concluded that AT&T could do so without buying T-Mobile. While it would probably have to spend billions to squeeze more efficiencies out of its existing spectrum and to acquire capacity, it would most likely be far less than the $39 billion it’s willing to pay for T-Mobile. (In a regulatory filing, AT&T said that argument had “no merit.”)

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And extinguishing T-Mobile eliminates the “maverick competitor,” the Justice Department lawyer asserted. “The evidence suggests that T-Mobile is the primary competitor on price. It provides the pricing discipline for the other carriers,” he said. In internal documents, T-Mobile itself boasted about its “disruptive pricing,” at least until the AT&T deal was announced. And while hardly renowned for its technological innovation, T-Mobile was the first to introduce the now popular phones, which unleashed a wave of competition in the smartphone market. Referring to enhanced broadband networks, an internal AT&T document obtained by the government acknowledged that “the more immediate threat to AT&T is T-Mobile.”

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If the government succeeds, can T-Mobile survive? AT&T has argued that T-Mobile is not a viable stand-alone carrier, and that Deutsche Telekom, T-Mobile’s current owner, has already labeled it a “discontinued asset.” A much-rumored combination of T-Mobile with third-ranking Sprint doesn’t really solve the concentration problem, since it still reduces the field to three and, at least by my back-of-the-envelope calculation of the HHI, would also violate the merger guidelines.

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But the $39 billion price tag AT&T is willing to pay suggests that T-Mobile is a valuable asset and far from a failing business. At the right price, surely someone would find it attractive. Or why not let T-Mobile continue its maverick ways as a company competing primarily on price? If so, the sooner the better, since it is losing market share as it languishes in corporate limbo.

Although AT&T has said it’s willing to discuss a settlement, and the Justice Department said its door was always open, it’s hard to imagine anything that would satisfy the antitrust concerns. With the top 40 markets deemed too concentrated after the merger, it’s not as though AT&T can simply divest itself of a few assets and markets. The battle now seems headed to the courts, where AT&T has vowed to fight the lawsuit, and to a lesser extent, the political arena, where AT&T has cranked up its considerable lobbying power.

But it is high time the government started protecting consumers by enforcing the antitrust laws, and if it cannot win this case, it’s hard to imagine one it could. Given the vagaries of judges, Mr. Hovenkamp said, there’s no way to know for sure how the case will turn out. But, he said, “I don’t think the government is going out on a limb. I expect the government will win.”